When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Greek Default is not End of the World

Climax nears in Greek drama | Reuters: "Tortuous negotiations over a second bailout for Greece are set to come to a head on Wednesday, putting fragile market confidence to the test on the same day data is tipped to show the euro zone is entering a mild recession.

While the crazy Europeans continue their state of denial, let's pause for a little reality check. Greece is in default--it is insolvent and cannot pay its creditors. The question is whether the Greeks will continue to agree to the Eurozone's (Germany et al) funding of Greece's payments to its creditors (Eurozone banks et al) and in return submit to further punishment ("austerity") of the Greek people. Hopefully, the Greeks will soon come to their senses--

Krugman Says Greece Will Default on Its Debt, May Leave Euro - Bloomberg: "Greece will default on its debt and will probably quit the European monetary union, Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman said. “The Greek situation is essentially impossible,” Krugman said at a conference in Moscow today. “They will default on their debt. In fact they already have. The question is whether they will also leave the euro, which I think at this point is more likely than not.”"

Note: leaving the euro doesn't mean leaving the European Union, just the Eurozone.

And the sooner Greece defaults and leaves the euro, the better off the Greeks will be in the long term.

A euro exit is the only way out for Greece - FT.com: "The Greeks will have to leave the euro, recreate the drachma and re-enter the still-existing exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, the so-called ERM-II, which they departed in 2001."

Oh, and who owns the Greek debt? Go here and here. Biggest losers outside of Greece: Germany and France--surprised?


The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects