When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Friday, August 28, 2015

Tropical Storm ERIKA, Path, Forecast, Graphics, Information

Satellite view (click on images to enlarge)
Tropical Storm ERIKA graphic - source: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm ERIKA graphic - source: National Hurricane Center
NHC graphic
NHC graphic above
nhc.noaa.govThe Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. source: National Hurricane Center

For current information:

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Nate Silver on Sports, Politics, and FiveThirtyEight.com (podcast)

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, interviewed by Barry Ritholtz for Masters in Business on Bloomberg View. Nate Silver received his Bachelors in Economics in 2000 from University of Chicago. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t.

Silver came to the public attention’s with his accurate forecasts of political elections, from Senate to the President, in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Silver used the statistical methodology of baseball, rather than the anecdote driven approach the mainstream media had embraced.

He published under a pen name at Daily Kos, before the New York Times made his blog fivethirtyeight.com part of the  New York Times site. Covered in the podcast are subjects from sports to politics including where we are in the electoral process and what it means for the general election, including Donald Trump's surge."

source: Bloomberg View and The Big Picture

Sunday, August 16, 2015

The Trump Phenomenon

via Google search: Donald Trump
via Wikipedia: Donald Trump

via Wiktionary (Noun) phenomenon ‎(plural phenomena):
  1. A thing or being, event or process, perceptible through senses; or a fact or occurrence thereof.
  2. (extension) A knowable thing or event (eg by inference, especially in science).
  3. (metonymy) A kind or type of phenomenon (sense 1 or 2).
  4. Appearance; a perceptible aspect of something that is mutable.
  5. A fact or event considered very unusual, curious, or astonishing by those who witness it.
  6. A wonderful or very remarkable person or thing.
  7. (philosophy, chiefly Kantian idealism) An experienced object whose constitution reflects the order and conceptual structure imposed upon it by the human mind (especially by the powers of perception and understanding).
(observable fact or occurrence): event
(unusual, curious, or astonishing fact or event): marvel, miracle, oddity, wonder
(wonderful person or thing): marvel, miracle, phenom, prodigy, wonder

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Republican Debate Aftermath: Trump Triumphs on Google Search

First Republican Debate, The Aftermath: Trump Triumphs on Google Search (see above)

Real Digital Politics: Google gives a different story than Mainstream Media Narratives, "Inside the Beltway" Pundits, and Poltical Consultants' Focus Groups. 

Fox's GOP debate had record 24 million viewers - Aug. 7, 2015"Fox's GOP debate was watched by 24 million viewers on Thursday night, according to Nielsen data, making it the highest-rated primary debate in television history. The event, featuring Donald Trump in his first debate, was also the highest-rated telecast in the nearly 20 year history of the Fox News Channel, a spokeswoman said. Rival executives and campaign aides also predicted unusually high ratings for the event, thanks to curiosity about Trump and the controversy over the "top ten" candidate criteria. But the ratings shattered even the rosiest expectations for the beginning of debate season. Television executives were stunned."

See also:

Monday, August 3, 2015

Changing US Housing Aspirations, Real Estate Market (video)

U.S. Housing Aspirations Have Changed: Meyer - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Deputy Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer discusses the health of the U.S. real estate market and move back towards urban centers. She speaks with Tom Keene and Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg Television's “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Published on Jul 10, 2015)

The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects