When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Saving the World Economy: Paul Krugman and Olivier Blanchard



Saving the World Economy: Paul Krugman and Olivier Blanchard in Conversation (video above)

Two of the foremost experts on the global economy / international economy, Paul Krugman and Olivier Blanchard, engage in a discussion about recent crises around the world and how to prevent global economic collapse. Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning economist, noted New York Times columnist and author, and distinguished professor in the Ph.D. Program in Economics at the Graduate Center. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2008 to 2015, is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT. Published on Dec 21, 2015

Presented on December 7, 2015, by GC Public Programs and the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies.

Monday, December 21, 2015

2016 Election to Be a Drag on U.S. Economy: Calsters CIO (video)



2016 Election to Be a Drag on U.S. Economy: Calsters CIO -- Christopher Ailman, chief investment officer at Calsters, and Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles, discuss the psychology of markets and investing and the negative impact the 2016 presidential race will have on markets and the U.S. economy. They speak on "Bloomberg ‹GO›." Published on Dec 8, 2015

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Tuesday’s #GOPdebate is LIVE at 9 PM EST on CNN.com

The main event of Tuesday's #GOPdebate starts at 9:00 pm on CNN.com.

Ignore the hype and spin of CNN-- 

So what time does Tuesday’s Republican debate start? CNN doesn’t seem to want you to know. - The Washington Post: "On CNN.com, a weekend news story bore the headline, “What time is the #GOPDebate? And everything else you need to know.” This allegedly helpful explainer article told readers that “CNN’s coverage of the first debate will begin at 6:00 p.m. ET and coverage of the second debate will start at 8:30 p.m. ET.” It even mentioned that “CNN will also offer a live stream of the debate on CNN.com’s homepage and across mobile platforms from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. ET.”... The main event with leading candidates including Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson starts at 9 p.m. [EST]"

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Fosun's Billionaire Chairman Reported Missing (video)



Fosun's Billionaire Chairman Reported Missing - Fosun International Chairman Guo Guangchang has gone missing according to published reports in China's Caixin magazine. Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams has the story on "On the Move." Published on Dec 11, 2015

It's not easy being a billionaire in China!

See also:

China's 'Warren Buffett' said to be 'assisting authorities'
Financial Times
Fosun International, China's largest private conglomerate, said its chairman, Guo ... Chinese billionaire captured global attention by buying some of the west's ... The report about Mr Guo were only the latest involving senior ... A friend of the Guo family said family members had lost touch with him.

Chinese Billionaire Said to Be Assisting Authorities in an Investigation - Wall Street Journal


Monday, December 7, 2015

Why Brazil's Economy May Get Worse Before It Gets Better (video)



Why Brazil's Economy May Get Even Worse Before It Gets Better - In today's "Single Best Chart," Bloomberg's Tom Keene displays Brazilian GDP going back to 1996 as the nation's economy fell deeper into recession, contracting 1.7 percent in the three months ending in September. Published on Dec 1, 2015


Sunday, November 22, 2015

One Chart Explains Why Gundlach Says FED Should Not Raise Rates

In one chart--Global Nominal GDP (YOY), below, why Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine) thinks the FED should not raise rates in December:


Monday, November 16, 2015

World's Most Powerful Passports: UK, US, Germany, S. Korea, France

Chart: The world's most powerful passports: Infographic: The world's most powerful passports | Statista

Source: Statista

According to the Passport Index, holders of a passport issued in the United Kingdom or the United States can visit 147 countries. This makes them the most powerful passports in the world. The least powerful were named as being the Solomon Islands, Burma and South Sudan. Holders of these passports can only visit 28 countries worldwide. Read more in Statista's latest infographic feature in the Independent.

The chart above shows the number of visa free countries passport holders can visit in 2015.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

News from Paris, France



Wednesday, November 11, 2015

FOX Business Network & Wall Street Journal GOP Debates, Live Coverage

FOX Business Network & Wall Street Journal GOP Debates | Live Coverage Here
Below: Live Twitter Feed

Monday, November 9, 2015

Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach, 3 Bond Picks Yielding 10%+ (video)



3 Gundlach Bond Picks Yielding 10% or More - Published on Nov 4, 2015
Speaking at Barron's Art of Successful Investing Conference, Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach recommends a mortgage REIT, energy bonds, and tax-free Puerto Rican munis.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Monday, October 26, 2015

Why Investors Should Not Wait for Rising Interest Rates (video)



Don't Wait for Rising Interest Rates - It may seem as if interest rates will never rise, but they probably will, and Morgan Stanley's Greg Vaughan explains why waiting for it to happen is a dangerous strategy. Published Oct 21, 2015


Monday, October 19, 2015

Commodities, Outflows, Emerging Markets Worry Anshu Jain (video)



Emerging Markets a ‘Worry’ for Anshu Jain - Anshu Jain, the former co-chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank AG, said some emerging markets that have been hurt by plunging commodity prices and an outflow of funds are a “worry.” “In certain parts of ex-Japan, ex-China, ex-India Asia we could have some bad news,” Jain said in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-In-chief John Micklethwait at Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit 2015 in London. He pointed to Brazil, South Africa, Russia, Turkey as other emerging markets that harbor risks. Published on Oct 6, 2015

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

LIVE: Dem Debate, TRUMP Twitter Feed

TRUMP Twitter Feed Below:


Oh the debate? On CNN--a free internet live stream will be available for all at CNN.com starting at 8:30 pm ET (US).



Sunday, October 11, 2015

Apple's New Products: Are They Game Changers? (video)



Apple's New Products: Are They Game Changers? - Technalysis Research President and Chief Analyst Bob O'Donnell discusses the launch of the latest products from Apple, the new features and if they are worth the upgrade. He speaks to Bloomberg's Angie Lau on "First Up." Sept. 10, 2015

NASDAQ: AAPL

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Mohamed El-Erian video, Fed Missed Window, No October Rate Hike



Mohamed El-Erian: Oct. Fed Rate Hike Won't Happen - Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's former chief executive officer and a Bloomberg View columnist, comments on what the September jobs report means for Federal Reserve monetary policy. He speaks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu on "Bloomberg Markets," October 2, 2015.

Jobs Report Is Lackluster, Raising Concern on Economy’s Course - The New York Times"“There’s nothing good in this morning’s report,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. “We had very low levels of job creation, wage growth isn’t budging and the unemployment rate would have risen if the labor force participation rate hadn’t fallen.”" (Oct 2, 2015)

Economists Can't Find the Silver Lining in Today's Jobs Report - Bloomberg Business"When the U.S. jobs report is released each month, there's typically enough nuance to offer something for everyone — the good and the bad. Today proved to be a feast for the bears. "When you look through all the details of the data, there just isn't anything good to hang your hat on," said Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. "It's been years since we've seen such an unambiguously bad report." Silver linings were tough to come by in the September jobs data. Payrolls came in at a much-weaker-than-forecast 142,000, while August and July figures were revised down. Wage growth was nonexistent for the month, with average hourly earnings actually falling by a penny on average. The softness in manufacturing endured, with factory payrolls falling by 9,000 when they were expected to show no change. With dollar appreciation and sluggish overseas growth providing headwinds, it was the biggest back-to-back decline since 2010... "

It's Been a Terrible Week for the Credit Market - Bloomberg Business: "According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists led by Hans Mikkelsen: "The two weakest days in recent memory for high-grade credit occurred this week [on Monday and Thursday]." Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank Strategist Jim Reid pointed out that spreads on corporate debt are nearing levels usually seen during recessions. While credit has often been called the canary in the coal mine for global markets, because of its tendency to show signs of strain before stocks, the question now is whether bond investors are saying something important about deteriorating fundamentals or overshooting in their pessimism."

Gundlach warns of 'another wave down' - Business Insider""The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping," Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out — not when they are holding and hoping."

Traders Don't See Fed Moving Until at Least March, Futures Show - Bloomberg Business"“The Fed has been overoptimistic for a long time on their forecasts for growth,” said Gary Pollack, who manages $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. Markets are also signaling expectations for a lower Fed target down the road, according to a note from Jim Vogel, an interest-rate strategist at FTN Financial Capital Markets in Memphis, Tennessee. Last month, the Fed forecast the tightening cycle will end with the funds rate at 3.5 percent. However, Treasuries now indicate a peak of 1.75 percent for almost five years, according to Vogel."

Sunday, September 27, 2015

September 27th Supermoon Lunar Eclipse LIVE (video)

On September 27th, 2015 there will be a very rare event in the night sky – a supermoon lunar eclipse. Watch the animated feature above to learn more.

For the first time in more than 30 years, you can witness a supermoon in combination with a lunar eclipse. Late on Sept. 27, 2015, in the U.S. and much of the world, a total lunar eclipse will mask the moon’s larger-than-life face.

Watch NASA’s live stream from 8:00 p.m. until at least 11:30 p.m. EDT broadcast from Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., with a live feed from the Griffith Observatory, Los Angeles, Calif. Mitzi Adams, a NASA solar physicist at Marshall will discuss the eclipse and answer questions from Twitter. To ask a question, use #askNASA.

Throughout human history, lunar eclipses have been viewed with awe and sometimes fear. Today, we know that a total lunar eclipse happens when the full moon passes through the darkest part of Earth's shadow, the umbra.

Sunday’s supermoon eclipse will last 1 hour and 11 minutes, and will be visible to North and South America, Europe, Africa, and parts of West Asia and the eastern Pacific. Weather permitting, you can see the supermoon after nightfall, and the eclipse will cast it into shadow beginning at 8:11 p.m. EDT. The total eclipse starts at 10:11 p.m. EDT, peaking at 10:47 p.m. EDT. (source: nasa.gov)


more info:


Sunday, September 20, 2015

Facebook, Dollars and Sneakers: A Refugee's Survival Kit (video)



Facebook, Dollars and Sneakers: A Refugee's Survival Kit - Thousands of refugees continue to arrive every day in Athens, on ferries from the country's outlying islands. The route they take from the Greek capital to the Macedonian border is now well travelled, and many local businesses are feeling the benefits. Bloomberg's Tom Mackenzie followed one group of Syrian refugees as they navigated the latest leg of their journey. Published on Sep 18, 2015.


Thursday, September 17, 2015

Donald Trump is winning the Google Search Race



Donald Trump is winning the "Search Race" among GOP contenders for President. Above: Debate 2: Top Searched Republican Candidate By County - Top Searched Republican Candidate on Google by Count since first GOP debate. Highlight individual areas to see details. Scroll right to see second most searched candidate by county, change since the first debate and battleground states

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

CNN Republican Primary Debate Wednesday, LIVE Online Stream

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

CNN Republican Primary Debate * Live Online Stream * http://www.cnn.com/

6pm ET / 3pm PT - First round debate: Candidates 6pm: Santorum, Jindal, Pataki, Graham

8pm ET / 5pm PT - Second round primetime debate - Candidates 8pm: Trump, Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina

Aired On: CNN and Salem Radio
Location: Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA
Sponsors: Reagan Library Foundation, CNN, Salem Media Group
Moderator(s): Jake Tapper, Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt
Rules: Split field into Segment B (primetime) and Segment A (remaining candidates getting at least 1% in polls) (Details)



GOP Debate Schedule

Monday, September 14, 2015

How Dangerous Is September for the Markets? (video)



How Dangerous Is September for the Markets? - Pimco Global Strategic Advisor Richard Clarida discusses the U.S. economy, Fed policy and the markets. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (September 8, 2015)

#investors #investing

Monday, September 7, 2015

How to Invest Amid the Volatility in Global Markets (video)


How to Invest Amid the Volatility in Global Markets - Sept. 4 -- OCBC Bank's Vasu Menon discusses the recent volatility in global equities and his investment strategy with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn on "First Up." (Sep 4, 2015)

Friday, August 28, 2015

Tropical Storm ERIKA, Path, Forecast, Graphics, Information

Satellite view (click on images to enlarge)
Tropical Storm ERIKA graphic - source: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm ERIKA graphic - source: National Hurricane Center
NHC graphic
NHC graphic above
nhc.noaa.govThe Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. source: National Hurricane Center

For current information:

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Nate Silver on Sports, Politics, and FiveThirtyEight.com (podcast)



Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, interviewed by Barry Ritholtz for Masters in Business on Bloomberg View. Nate Silver received his Bachelors in Economics in 2000 from University of Chicago. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t.

Silver came to the public attention’s with his accurate forecasts of political elections, from Senate to the President, in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Silver used the statistical methodology of baseball, rather than the anecdote driven approach the mainstream media had embraced.

He published under a pen name at Daily Kos, before the New York Times made his blog fivethirtyeight.com part of the  New York Times site. Covered in the podcast are subjects from sports to politics including where we are in the electoral process and what it means for the general election, including Donald Trump's surge."

source: Bloomberg View and The Big Picture


Sunday, August 16, 2015

The Trump Phenomenon


Trump
via Google search: Donald Trump
via Wikipedia: Donald Trump

Phenomenom
via Wiktionary (Noun) phenomenon ‎(plural phenomena):
  1. A thing or being, event or process, perceptible through senses; or a fact or occurrence thereof.
  2. (extension) A knowable thing or event (eg by inference, especially in science).
  3. (metonymy) A kind or type of phenomenon (sense 1 or 2).
  4. Appearance; a perceptible aspect of something that is mutable.
  5. A fact or event considered very unusual, curious, or astonishing by those who witness it.
  6. A wonderful or very remarkable person or thing.
  7. (philosophy, chiefly Kantian idealism) An experienced object whose constitution reflects the order and conceptual structure imposed upon it by the human mind (especially by the powers of perception and understanding).
Synonyms
(observable fact or occurrence): event
(unusual, curious, or astonishing fact or event): marvel, miracle, oddity, wonder
(wonderful person or thing): marvel, miracle, phenom, prodigy, wonder



Sunday, August 9, 2015

Republican Debate Aftermath: Trump Triumphs on Google Search


First Republican Debate, The Aftermath: Trump Triumphs on Google Search (see above)

Real Digital Politics: Google gives a different story than Mainstream Media Narratives, "Inside the Beltway" Pundits, and Poltical Consultants' Focus Groups. 

Fox's GOP debate had record 24 million viewers - Aug. 7, 2015"Fox's GOP debate was watched by 24 million viewers on Thursday night, according to Nielsen data, making it the highest-rated primary debate in television history. The event, featuring Donald Trump in his first debate, was also the highest-rated telecast in the nearly 20 year history of the Fox News Channel, a spokeswoman said. Rival executives and campaign aides also predicted unusually high ratings for the event, thanks to curiosity about Trump and the controversy over the "top ten" candidate criteria. But the ratings shattered even the rosiest expectations for the beginning of debate season. Television executives were stunned."

See also:

Monday, August 3, 2015

Changing US Housing Aspirations, Real Estate Market (video)



U.S. Housing Aspirations Have Changed: Meyer - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Deputy Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer discusses the health of the U.S. real estate market and move back towards urban centers. She speaks with Tom Keene and Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg Television's “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Published on Jul 10, 2015)

Monday, July 27, 2015

100 Most Beautiful Airplanes at Oshkosh Fly-In (video)



100 Most Beautiful Airplanes at Oshkosh Fly-In - Every year hundreds of airplane enthusiasts gather in Oshkosh, Wisconsin to show off aircraft of all shapes and sizes, from vintage WWII bombers to custom gliders to Piper Cubs. Bloomberg gathered the highlights in one video. (Video by Mike Zorbas and Amy Marino.)


Sunday, July 19, 2015

Will China Drag Down the Global Economy? (video)



Will China Drag Down the Global Economy? -  Credit Suisse Chief Economist James Sweeney discusses the markets and the economy. He speaks on “Market Makers.” Published on Jul 14, 2015


Sunday, July 12, 2015

Greece, Austerity, Depression, Grexit or Fresh Start? (video)



Japonica Partners Founder and CEO Paul Kazarian discusses his company being one of the largest private bond holders in Greece and his thoughts on the latest proposal by the country to its creditors. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.” Published on Jul 10, 2015

Counter from Paul Krugman:

Austerity and the Greek Depression - The New York Times: "... So now what? A few months ago I thought that stabilizing Greece at a small primary surplus might work, in the sense that it would allow a return to growth even if it didn’t do anything to make up lost ground. But the creditors are still demanding a rising primary surplus over time, and balking at top line debt relief that might at least offer a clear marker of progress. If those are the requirements for Greece to stay in the eurozone, Grexit is inevitable."


Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Mohamed El-Erian Says Keep A Close Eye on Chinese Stocks

Mohamed A. El-Erian | Facebook: "Lots of people will (and should) be keeping a close eye on Chinese stocks this week, starting with the government. In partnership with brokerage firms, the authorities opted for a big bang package over the weekend to stabilize what had been a volatile and rapidly correcting market (chart below from cnbc.com). This intervention reflects concerns about the risk of an adverse economic and social fallout. It did not take long for markets on Monday to test the robustness of the measures. The same is happening at the start of Tuesday’s session. Failure to contain volatility could lead to another leg down in stocks."

#China #Bubble

CSI 500 Index

SHCOMP INDEX - SHCOMP:IND (source: Bloomberg)

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. Index trade volume on Q is scaled down by a factor of 1000.

For comparison: S&P500 Index (US)




Monday, July 6, 2015

Greece, United, Finally Says "NO" to EU Austerity "Insanity"

Screenshot of  Greek Ministry of Interior website NO: 61.31% ; YES: 38.69%
It wasn't even close!

Blasts from the past (2012): 


Time for the EU Creditors of Greece to take a haircut! Tomorrow will be interesting! Follow Live Twitter feed below:


Sunday, July 5, 2015

IPOs Halted on China's Stock Markets, Too Little, Too Late?

On Saturday evening, China’s two stock exchanges — in Shanghai and in the far southern city, Shenzhen — issued notices suspending initial public offerings until further notice even for companies that already had provisional approval to list their shares. (source infra)
As Chinese stocks soared in the 12 months until their peak on June 12, the small- and medium-size companies with weak financial fundamentals fared the best. Many of them quadrupled, or rose even more, in value, while the overall index doubled because large-cap stocks lagged far behind. The small-cap and medium-cap stocks overwhelmingly tended to draw middle-class and working-class investors who were buying whatever stocks were rising fastest. The Shanghai market rose 149 percent in the year until June 12. By comparison, a stock price index of 100 large mainland Chinese companies that are traded in Hong Kong — and many of them in Shanghai, too — rose 24 percent over the same period. (source infra)
China's government-controlled Securities Association of China said that 21 big brokerage firms had agreed to set up a fund worth at least 120 billion renminbi, or $19.4 billion, to buy shares in the largest, most stable companies, and to stop selling shares from their own portfolios. But some experts said the moves might not be enough to stop the hemorrhaging of money from the stock market, particularly given that $105 billion in shares changed hands in Shanghai on Friday.--China Moves to Stabilize Stock Markets; Initial Offerings Halted - The New York Times

The world is addicted to fiscal stimulus and central bankers' fiat money, and as a result has too much debt--The Smartest Man is Wild about Innovation"The whole world is suffering from too much debt. As a result, growth almost everywhere is going to be slow. I know you believe the problem is insufficient demand, but the major industrialized countries already have considerable debt and do not want to add any more to it to stimulate the consumer."

Financial Crisis Events to watch this week: 

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Why the Champagne Keeps Flowing in Mykonos, Greece (video)




Why the Champagne Keeps Flowing in Mykonos, Greece - Mega yachts, champagne showers and fresh lobster. It's just another day on Mykonos, the Greek party island unscathed by the country's economic crisis. (source: Bloomberg video)


Monday, June 22, 2015

Why Goldman Sachs Is Diving Back Into the Dark Pool (video)



Why Goldman Sachs Is Diving Back Into the Dark Pool - Goldman Sachs, which called for reform of high-speed stock trading before Michael Lewis’s “Flash Boys” spurred an outcry last year, is diving back in. Bloomberg's Michael Moore reports on high-speed stock trading on “Bloomberg Markets,” June 12th.


Sunday, June 14, 2015

What's Behind the Selloff in Emerging Market Stocks? (video)



What's Behind the Selloff in Emerging Market Stocks? - Bloomberg's Shery Ahn takes a look at why emerging market stocks are selling off. She speaks with Bloomberg's Angie Lau on "First Up," June 9th.


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Investment Banking Era At Its End, HSBC Layoffs (video)



Investment Banking Era Is at Its End: Blain - Mint Partners Strategist Bill Blain and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jonathan Tyce discuss plans by HSBC to cut 25,000 jobs and the state of investment banking. They speak with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move,” June 9th.


Sunday, June 7, 2015

New Yorker Cartoons or Drawings? A Video Explains



Why are New Yorker Cartoons referred to as "Drawings" in the Table of Contents? In the video above, Bob Mankoff explains--The Cartoon Lounge, with Bob Mankoff--he also talks about illness-themed cartoons.


Sunday, May 31, 2015

O’Malley Ain't No Obama

Martin O’Malley has "been in governance far longer, has accomplished more, is arguably just as liberal as [Elizabeth Warren]... and unlike Warren, he’s actually running for president. Why do some progressives tend to dismiss him as a mere technocrat who doesn’t inspire?" -- Michael Hirsh - POLITICO
Let me make this simple--it's over. The 2016 race, for President. Barring something unforeseen--an indictment, a disabling health issue, etc.--Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. We all know what happened in 2008--a young, charismatic Senator from the State of Illinois knocked the wheels off the Clinton juggernaut (disclosure: I was an Obama supporter)--but it won't happen this time. O'Malley ain't no Obama. Oh sure, there are going to be some rough patches along the way. Hillary and Bill don't expect to just waltz back into the White House, they've been around the political game long enough to know better. But sometime after November, 2016, I fully expect to see Hill and Bill packing up for the move back to Washington.

The Republicans don't have anyone with the "right stuff," except perhaps Rand Paul, but the best he will be able to do is lay the groundwork for a 2020 or 2024 run for the White House. In the end, the Democrats will all coalesce around their sure winner. The world is a mess. Even the U.S. is stumbling--economically, socially, globally, politically--and Washington, D.C., is a self-serving cesspool of money and ambition. But the Clintons have already taken money from everybody, so there is no issue, foreign or domestic, where both sides haven't already attempted to "grease the wheels." In addition, Hillary will probably be playing for the history books as the first woman President.

If nothing else, the state of the nation and the world (see above), will ensure a Clinton victory in 2016. Fear is a great motivator, and people are fearful--"Dude, what happened to my country?"--the old people will come out in droves to vote for Hillary. The last place you want to be standing on election day in November, 2016, is between a gray-haired person and a polling place. So the GOP can cross off Florida even if Rubio OR Bush is the Republican nominee--yes, the Republicans' chances to win the White House are that bad in 2016.

Remember, when most people over the age of 45 think of Hillary, they actually think of "Bill and Hillary." That's actually a very good thing for Hillary, which I am not sure her campaign advisers understand at this point. Nobody is without sin as they say, and even Barbara Bush is now a big fan of Bill Clinton. Most older Americans remember the Clinton administration (1993-2000), as the "good years"-- prosperous, peaceful--heck we even had a federal budget surplus in some of those years thanks to the Republicans who controlled both houses of Congress, yet Bill was also able to triangulate and "get things done."

Of course, the media will, at least publicly, maintain the race (at whatever point) is "close" and will make mountains out of molehills at every chance they get in order to try to create some ratings for their dinosaur media properties. If you're a political junkie, have a good time. As for the rest of us, life goes on.


Monday, May 25, 2015

2016 And Why Jeb Bush Should Forget About Being President

Most people (even  some members of the Bush family) agree that Jeb Bush would have been a better President than his brother. But that doesn't mean Jeb will be, or should be, the next President. Time moves on. Opportunities lost are often, if not always, lost forever. That's the way it is in life, whether you are an entrepreneur in Silicon Valley or a politico Presidential wannabe.

We are hardly into the 2016 Presidential election cycle, and we are already witnessing the sad spectacle of Jeb trying to defend his brother's administration's disastrous foreign foray otherwise known as the Iraq War and other unwise policies--e.g., the Patriot Act.

Florida already has one candidate in the 2016 race--Marco Rubio, and some would say that even that is "one too many." The US appears to be in a "leadership vacuum." The Republicans don't have anyone, save for possibly Rand Paul, with real Presidential leadership potential and a chance to win in 2016. The Democrats seem to be stuck in Clintonialism and gender politics--"Hillary should be elected President because she is a woman and would have been elected in 2008 but for Barack Obama!" or "we need a woman President--the first in history!" However, despite the negatives and the baggage, Hillary will probably be the "safe choice" and elected in 2016. The celebration will seem subdued in comparison to the jubilation accompanying Barack Obama in 2008, but the nation will move on.

In the meantime, Jeb, for the sake of the nation, his party, his family, and his own personal integrity, should gracefully exit the race.


Sunday, May 17, 2015

The US Student Loan Program Disaster, Another Bubble of Government Ineptitude

Who thought it was a "good idea" to put young people in six figure, non-dischargable debt, often for worthless for-profit "college educations"?



Of course the beneficiaries have been the for-profit and non-profit colleges and universities whose own costs, including administrative salaries and staff size, have exploded due to the student loan program a/k/a government pork.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Larry Summers Concerned About US Economy, Secular Stagnation (video)

Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up -

Secular Stagnation: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers talks about economic growth and financial markets in the U.S. and China, and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Summers speaks with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on the sidelines of the SALT Conference in Las Vegas on Bloomberg's Television's "Market Makers," on May 7th.


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Carl Icahn Interviewed on Wall Street Week this Sunday

Carl Icahn, activist shareholder and investor, is interviewed on Wall Street Week this Sunday, May 3rd--rumor has it this is a show worth catching online or on TV (see below).

About | Wall Street Week: "A revival of the iconic program originally hosted by Louis Rukeyser, Wall Street Week is focused on educating and empowering long-term investors.  With unrivalled access to the biggest names and critical insights on the biggest stories, Wall Street Week is the show that sets the agenda for the week ahead. Produced by SkyBridge Media LLC., an affiliate of SkyBridge Capital."

Streamed nationally on Wallstreetweek.com every Sunday at 11am ET (US).

Airing Sunday mornings on Fox broadcast stations in key markets: 
NEW YORK WNYW – FOX 5 Sundays @ 11am
SAN FRANCISCO KICU – TV 36 Sundays @ 11am
CHICAGO WFLD – FOX 32 Sundays @ 10am
WASHINGTON DC WTTG – Fox 5 Sundays @ 11am


Sunday, April 26, 2015

Rick Ferri, Portfolio Solutions Founder and CIO (audio)



This Masters in Business radio podcast features Rick Ferri, founder and chief investment officer of Portfolio Solutions - portfoliosolutions.com - interviewed by Barry Ritholtz.

Ferri is a former Marine Corps fighter pilot who spent the first decade of his career working as a retail stockbroker. In the 1990s, he came up with an idea for a low-cost portfolio based on exchange-traded funds while working at Smith Barney. He pitched the idea to the company’s chief at the time, Jamie Dimon, who shot it down. Ferri spent the next few years refining the idea and planning his own firm, which he started in 1999. He also is the author of several books, including “All About Index Funds: The Easy Way to Get Started. #investing


Sunday, April 19, 2015

Investing, The Fed, Unintended Consequences

Investing: The Fed and unintended consequences: "...The best bet for most people: Remain widely diversified. You'll need cash in case you need to write a check. You need bonds because if the economy falters, we could be looking at Japan-style interest rates. (Bond prices rise when interest rates fall, and vice-versa). And you need stocks because that's where you're most likely to get the highest returns over the long run. The more time you have before you'll need your money, the more you should have in stocks. And be brave. The law of unintended consequences also means that sometimes, good things happen when you least expect them. You never know." (read more at the link above)




Friday, April 17, 2015

Charles Masson: Top Five Secrets of a Successful Restaurant (video)

The Top Five Secrets of a Successful Restaurant -

Charles Masson lives restaurants, from legendary years spent at New York’s La Grenouille to his current directorship of Chevalier at the new Baccarat Hotel. Here he reveals the five ingredients every great dining room needs to succeed. (video by Zach Goldstein, Paul Cavrel) (Source: Bloomberg)


Thursday, April 16, 2015

Hold My Money, Please, I'll Even Pay You!

Hold my money, please, I'll even pay you?

A currency crisis is on deck, but few see it coming.--Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Until this past week, no country had ever sold 10-year debt that gives investors a yield of below 0%. And no country had ever issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. But in the latest stark sign of how easy the era of easy money has become, Switzerland on Wednesday sold 10-year bonds that investors are actually paying to hold, while Mexico lined up a rare transaction to borrow euros it promised to repay a century from now—at a yield of 4.2%... Reserve prepares to raise interest rates, the European Central Bank is forcefully driving them down. The Swiss National Bank, eager to keep its currency from soaring too far above its eurozone neighbors’, has itself shoved interest rates below zero. Read more at: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Milestones in Bond Insanity: Negative 10-Year Yield on Swiss Bonds, Mexico Sell 100-Year Bonds Denominated in Euros; Are 1000-Year Bonds Next?


Wednesday, April 15, 2015

The Next Financial Crisis? Worse Says Jamie Dimon

Wait till the NEXT financial crisis! So says J.P. Morgan boss Jamie Dimon--in his annual letter to shareholders, the bank’s chief executive warned “there will be another crisis” — and the market reaction could be even more volatile, because regulations are now tougher."

read more:

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

China, Economy, Scary Numbers (video)

China's Economy: The Numbers Look Scary -

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ken Hoffman reports on China’s slowing economy. He speaks on “In The Loop,” April 10th.


Monday, April 13, 2015

Jon Hamm Explains Career Trajectory to Mad Men (video)

Jon Hamm Explains Career Trajectory to 'Mad Men' -

Actor Jon Hamm discusses his career and the roles he has played such as Don Draper in AMC's hit series "Mad Men." He speaks with Pimm Fox on "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg)


Sunday, April 12, 2015

What Mad Men Means for AMC Networks (video)

What 'Mad Men' Means for AMC Networks -

Paul Sweeney discusses AMC's hit series "Mad Men" with Pimm Fox. They speak on "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg)


Friday, April 10, 2015

Mortgaging Our Future?

Government programs for mortgage lending implicated in the Great Recession--

Mortgaging the Future? | The Big Picture: ".... in the postwar period an above average mortgage-lending boom unequivocally makes both financial and normal recessions worse. By year five GDP per capita can fall considerably, as much as 3 percentage points lower than it would have otherwise been. In contrast, booms in nonmortgage credit have virtually no effect on the shape of the recession in the same postwar periodWhy the difference? At this point we can only speculate. A mortgage boom gone bust is typically followed by rapid household deleveraging, which tends to depress overall demand as borrowers shift away from consumption toward saving. This has been one of the most visible features of the slow U.S. recovery from the global financial crisis (Mian and Sufi 2014)... Our research suggests that the explosion of credit has played a more important role in shaping the business cycle than has been appreciated up to now. A growing consensus along these lines has renewed interest in revisiting the assumptions about cyclical macroprudential policy (for example, Aikman, Haldane, and Nelson 2014). Much of the recent expansion in bank lending took place through real estate lending, and this particular component of the credit mix appears to have the most relevant macroeconomic effects. A natural inference is that economic policy needs to adapt to this new reality." (read more at the link above)


Thursday, April 9, 2015

George Soros: Greece Is Going Down the Drain (video)

George Soros: Greece Is Going Down the Drain -

In an exclusive interview, Hedge Fund Billionaire George Soros discusses Greece's bailout agreement and the U.K. elections with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Countdown," March 24th.


Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Insider Trading From Washington Insiders? (video)

Insider Trading From Washington Insiders? -

Bloomberg Businessweek’s Josh Green reports on Washington insiders insider trading. He speaks on “Market Makers.”





Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Bill Gross Is Very Bullish on Treasuries (video)

Bill Gross Is Very Bullish on Treasuries -
April 3 -- Janus Capital Group Portfolio Manager Bill Gross talks about his treasury holdings, his stance on the German Bund and his thoughts on Greece. He speaks on Bloomberg's "Surveillance."


Monday, April 6, 2015

Why College Is Not for Everyone: Robert Reich (video)

Why College Isn’t for Everyone: Robert Reich -

Bloomberg’s Olivia Sterns recaps the op-ed pieces and analyst notes that provide insight into today's headlines. Harvard Business School’s Robert Kaplan also speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (March 24)


Sunday, April 5, 2015

The Luxury Umbrella That Alerts You When You Forget It (video)

The Luxury Umbrella That Alerts You When You Forget It -

Davek Accessories CEO Dave Kahng discusses the luxury umbrella market.


Friday, April 3, 2015

Greece's Debt Problem Explained in Five Charts (video)

Greece's Debt Problem Explained in Five Charts -

Greek leaders met with European officials to come up with a plan to get Greece's economy back on track. The country may run out of money as soon as early April if no agreement is reached. Bloomberg's Joe Weisnethal looked at five charts that explain Greece's ongoing financial problems. (Charts by: Maxime Sbaihi, video by: Kelly Buzby, David Yim)


Thursday, April 2, 2015

Can Macau Move Past Gambling, Casinos? (video)

How Can Macau Move Past Gambling, Casinos? -

Macquarie Capital Senior Analyst Chad Benyon discusses gambling and Macua’s economy. He speaks on Bloomberg's “In The Loop.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Is High-Frequency Trading Really Out of Control? (video)

Is High-Frequency Trading Really Out of Control? -

Former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton discusses high-frequency trading, and responds to comments made by Michael Lewis, the author of ''Flash Boys.''

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Michael Lewis: What If Markets Made Themselves Fair? (video)

Michael Lewis: What If Markets Made Themselves Fair? -

March 25 -- “Flash Boys” Author and Bloomberg View Columnist Michael Lewis discusses high frequency trading a year after the release of his book. He spoke March 25th on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” His opinions are his own.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Traders Are in an Arms Race for Speed (video)

Traders Are in an Arms Race for Speed -

Themis Trading Partner Joe Saluzzi discusses high-frequency trading and the markets. He speaks on Bloomberg's “In The Loop.”

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Goodbye to War Loan: 1917 to 2015 (video)



Goodbye to War Loan: 1917 to 2015 - To commemorate this most interesting of gilts we have made a film about War Loan – one that tells the economic history of the UK through wars, default, the re-joining and leaving of the gold standard, the inflationary 1970s, the loss of the UK’s AAA credit rating, and finally the deflation that has followed the Great Financial Crisis.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Birch Cent Penny That Could Fetch $2 Million at Auction Today (video)

This Penny Could Fetch $2 Million at Auction -

A U.S. penny forged in 1792 is up for auction at Stack's Bowers in Baltimore, with an estimated value of $2 million. If the March 26 auction meets expectations, the coin will have realized a 200 million percent increase in value in 223 years. Bloomberg's James Tarmy has more on "Taking Stock."


Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Investing? Beware Consultants, They Will Cost You

The 2015 Commonfund prize has just been granted to an academic paper that concludes:
  • we find no evidence that [consultants']... recommendations add value, suggesting that the search for winners, encouraged and guided by investment consultants, is fruitless
  • the portfolio of all products recommended by investment consultants delivered average returns net of management fees of 6.31% per year (7.13% before fees). These returns are, on average 1.12% lower than the returns obtained by other products available to plan sponsors, which are not recommended by consultants.
  • Consultants face a conflict of interest, as arguably they have a vested interest in complexity. Proposing an active US equity strategy, which involves more due diligence, complexity, monitoring, switching and therefore more consultancy work, drives up consulting revenues in comparison to simple cheap solutions.
  • investment consultants themselves are shy of disclosing the sort of information which would allow plan sponsors, or any outsider, to measure their own performance.
Moral of the story: when making any investment based on the recommendation of another, always look at the vested interest of the person(s) making the recommendation--usually the conflict of interest is obvious, but in other cases, you have to dig deeper.

Hat Tip: Investing: Nobody knows anything | The Economist


Sunday, March 22, 2015

China, Reality Check, Has the Hard Landing Already Started? (video)

China Reality Check: Has the Hard Landing in China Already Started? -

Published on Feb 20, 2015: China’s economic growth rate fell to 7.4% in 2014, and many believe the official figure is actually more generous than the reality. Most forecasts expect growth to come in well under 7.0% in 2015. What are we to make of these trends? Are we at the beginning of a hard landing where the long history of structural inefficiencies are finally and inescapably being revealed and the possibilities of a financial crisis more ever looming? Or are we in a gradual shift toward a “new normal” of healthier and still relatively robust growth as a result of foresighted policy adjustments? Or is something else going on altogether? Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, is a veteran analyst of the China’s economy and economic policy process. She travels widely in China in order to compare official data with actual behavior and performance. Bob Davis of the Wall Street Journal is a leading expert on macroeconomic policy and recently completed an extended posting in Beijing, where he wrote regularly about China’s economy.

Featuring:
Anne Stevenson-Yang
Co-founder and Research Director, J Capital Research

with Commentary from:
Bob Davis
Washington Correspondent, Wall Street Journal

and
Scott Kennedy
Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, and Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS

Moderated by:
Christopher K. Johnson
Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Friday, March 20, 2015

The Incredible Turnaround of the US Dollar Explained (video)

The Incredible Turnaround of the U.S. Dollar Explained -

The U.S. dollar has been surging recently. Bloomberg Markets Managing Editor Joe Weisenthal explains why the dollar is the strongest it's been in 12 years.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Nouriel Roubini Does Not See Greece Leaving the Euro (video)

Nouriel Roubini Does Not See Greece Leaving the Euro -

In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy.

Monday, March 16, 2015

I'm For Billary! Slogans That Hillary Clinton Will Never Use (video)

Slogans That Hillary Clinton Will Never Use -

"With All Due Respect" test-drives some potential bumper-sticker slogans for Hillary Clinton's impending campaign

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Who Buys $30 million Apartments in New York City? (video)

Luxury Views: Who’s Buying Up $30 Million Dollar Apartments in New York City? -

Dune Real Estate Partners CEO Daniel Neidich discusses the New York City luxury real estate market. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” February 24th

Friday, March 13, 2015

ECB President Mario Draghi News Conference in Two Minutes (video)

ECB President Mario Draghi's News Conference in Two Minutes -

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks about its bond purchase plans and the effectiveness of policy on March 5.Watch all the key moments from Draghi's news conference in Nicosia in two minutes. (Excerpts.)

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Why Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop the Drilling (video)

Why Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop the Drilling -

If oil rigs lead to new wells, fewer rigs should lead to less oil, right? Not necessarily. Bloomberg's Tom Randall explains. (Video by: Sadie Bass, Steven Jackson.)

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Top Five Frontier Markets to Invest In (video)

The Top Five Frontier Markets to Invest In -

Frontier markets are the wild west of the investing world. They can be dangerous, corrupt and often poverty-stricken but they can also be hugely lucrative. Bloomberg’s Gavin Serkin travelled with some of the world’s best-performing fund managers to find out which markets are worth the trouble. He reveals his findings in his book "Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow." March 5, 2015

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Why There Are No Winners in the Global Currency War (video)

Why There Are No Winners in the Global Currency War -


In a world where growth is scarce and prospects aren't improving, an unspoken currency war has broken out. The short term pay-off might be a boost in exports, but, according to Bloomberg View's Mark Gilbert, there can be no real winners in the end.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Will a $150 Million Condo Sell in New York City? (video)

Don Peebles, chairman and chief executive officer at Peebles Corporation, discusses the increased pricing and demand for luxury real estate in New York City. He speaks on “Market Makers.” (Feb 19, 2015)

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Is Cheap Oil a Complete Plus for the Economy?

Rudin Management CEO and Vice Chairman William Rudin and Citi Research North America Economics Head William Lee discuss the impact of low oil prices on the economy and the oil industry. They speak on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Buffett's Bet, S&P 500 Index Fund vs Hedge Funds

Warren Buffett bet Seides and his partners in 2007 ($1 million initially, to go to charity) that an S&P 500 index fund would do better for investors than a hand-picked assortment of hedge funds over the ensuing ten years. Through Dec. 31, the index fund had gained 7.2% a year, far outpacing the 2.6% return of the hedge funds as a group. Buffett made the simple - and empirically airtight - point that the heavy fees collected by hedge funds over time will consume more than 100% of the extra return a fund manager is able to deliver. As it turned out, fees did cost some 2.6% annualized from the hedge funds’ results - but this only deepened the underperformance cause by other means. (source infra)

Michael Santoli's Tumblr — Cry me a river that leads to Omaha  The Fed and other central banks responded to the 2008 financial calamity by dropping rates to zero and keeping them there, driving stocks higher and depriving hedge funds of any income on cash held. The U.S. stock market vastly outran foreign equities, penalizing hedge funds’ global posture. Structural changes in the arena of borrowing and shorting stocks picked hedgies’ pockets as they tried to gain downside market exposure. So, the sharpest, best-connected, most highly compensated tactical predators in the markets (hedge funds) were undercut by central bankers who preferred the world economy didn’t fail and technological progress in trading mechanics - and over seven years they failed as a group to anticipate, embrace or maneuver around these shifts. (read more at link above)

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Prisoner's Dilemma, Life on the Outside (video)

Feb. 19, 2015 -- There are an estimated 1,500 people in the U.S. serving a sentence of life without the possibility of parole for crimes committed while they were juveniles. It's called JLWOP and in 2012 the Supreme Court ruled the sentence was unconstitutional. But the court did not address what to do about the people already serving JWLOP sentences. George Toca was one of them. On Jan. 29, 2015, he was released after signing a plea agreement with the Orleans Parish District Attorney. Bloomberg spent a day with Toca as he experienced his new life on the outside. (Video by Jennafer Savino, David Yim)

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Gary Shilling on Why You Should Own Bonds

As a follow-up to Tuesday's post of Shilling on an Abundance of Commodities--Gary Shilling on Why You Should Own Bonds [Source: Advisor Perspectives, excerpt follows, full article at link]:

"Global devaluations - The currencies of commodity-producing countries have been weakening... The euro is being “deliberately trashed” by the ECB, he said, which is looking to spur exports. The follow-on will come from nearby currencies, Shilling said. South Korea is devaluing in response to Japan’s actions. While most central banks are devaluing through quantitative easing, some are cutting interest rates to weaken their currencies. We now face an environment of “universal devaluations,” Shilling said. The only winner is the dollar (except for Switzerland and Denmark who, he said, cannot devalue because of trading relationships). “We are stuck,” he said, with a strong currency.

"Investment recommendations - Shilling still recommends the long-dates U.S. Treasury bonds. Forecasts by economists have been for rising rates, he said, going back as far as 1981. But those forecasts have been consistently wrong. “I think the 10-year is going to 1%,” he said, “not 2.9% as economists forecast.” That would result in a 12% return over a one-year horizon. It’s not just because U.S. Treasury bonds are safe haven, he said, but also because their spread is high relative to all other sovereign bonds... Investors should short commodities, particularly copper, he said... Stocks overall, he said, are still expensive, based on the Shiller CAPE ratio...“With Fed out of the picture, we are going back to much greater dispersion and volatility.”... prepare for a risk of a “shock” that could result in a worldwide recession and a bear market... the only change to his investment recommendation would be to avoid all stocks...."

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Gary Shilling, Abundance Of Commodities (video)

Gary Shilling Eyes Abundance Of Commodities -

The world is awash with commodities, says investing guru Gary Shilling. (Published Feb 21, 2013)



Sunday, February 22, 2015

Why Austerity Will Not Save Greece (video)


Austerity programs demanded by Greece's debtors are pinching the country's economy. And history shows that very few countries have been able to meet the surpluses the Troika is asking for from Greece. Blooomberg's Brendan Greeleyexplains how to measure austerity and how it is unlikely to help Greece get out of debt. (Feb 19, 2015)

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Corruption, Eradicated?

Can Corruption Be Eradicated?: "....It seems unlikely that any outside force can introduce enough carrots and sticks to persuade a country to reform its political system. When Romania was campaigning for admission to the European Union, in 2003, it launched an anticorruption drive, and appointed a tough justice minister who spurred a series of corruption cases against senior officials. As soon as Romania joined the E.U., in 2007, the campaign fizzled, the justice minister was fired, and the cases were dropped. “A fish rots from the head,” Chayes observes, and, in the absence of national leaders with integrity and political will, it doesn’t appear that the United States will be able to reverse the pathologies in Afghanistan, Iraq, or any other country, notwithstanding Washington’s share in creating and sustaining some of those pathologies. Indeed, we may struggle to differentiate between the kinds of patronage that might assuage a population—the “glue” that Thomas Barfield describes—and the state-sanctioned larceny that Chayes argues, convincingly, is a threat not just to Afghanistan’s national security but to that of the United States...." (read more at the link above)

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

America, China, Economic Parity

The Real Story of How America Became an Economic Superpower - The Atlantic: "... Tooze’s story ends where our modern era starts: with the advent of a new European order—liberal, democratic, and under American protection. Yet nothing lasts forever. The foundation of this order was America’s rise to unique economic predominance a century ago. That predominance is now coming to an end as China does what the Soviet Union and Imperial Germany never could: rise toward economic parity with the United States. That parity has not, in fact, yet arrived, and the most realistic measures suggest that the moment of parity won’t arrive until the later 2020s. Perhaps some unforeseen disruption in the Chinese economy—or some unexpected acceleration of American prosperity—will postpone the moment even further. But it is coming, and when it does, the fundamental basis of world-power politics over the past 100 years will have been removed. Just how big and dangerous a change that will be is the deepest theme of Adam Tooze's profound and brilliant grand narrative." (read more at the link above)

 

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