When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Sunday, May 31, 2015

O’Malley Ain't No Obama

Martin O’Malley has "been in governance far longer, has accomplished more, is arguably just as liberal as [Elizabeth Warren]... and unlike Warren, he’s actually running for president. Why do some progressives tend to dismiss him as a mere technocrat who doesn’t inspire?" -- Michael Hirsh - POLITICO
Let me make this simple--it's over. The 2016 race, for President. Barring something unforeseen--an indictment, a disabling health issue, etc.--Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. We all know what happened in 2008--a young, charismatic Senator from the State of Illinois knocked the wheels off the Clinton juggernaut (disclosure: I was an Obama supporter)--but it won't happen this time. O'Malley ain't no Obama. Oh sure, there are going to be some rough patches along the way. Hillary and Bill don't expect to just waltz back into the White House, they've been around the political game long enough to know better. But sometime after November, 2016, I fully expect to see Hill and Bill packing up for the move back to Washington.

The Republicans don't have anyone with the "right stuff," except perhaps Rand Paul, but the best he will be able to do is lay the groundwork for a 2020 or 2024 run for the White House. In the end, the Democrats will all coalesce around their sure winner. The world is a mess. Even the U.S. is stumbling--economically, socially, globally, politically--and Washington, D.C., is a self-serving cesspool of money and ambition. But the Clintons have already taken money from everybody, so there is no issue, foreign or domestic, where both sides haven't already attempted to "grease the wheels." In addition, Hillary will probably be playing for the history books as the first woman President.

If nothing else, the state of the nation and the world (see above), will ensure a Clinton victory in 2016. Fear is a great motivator, and people are fearful--"Dude, what happened to my country?"--the old people will come out in droves to vote for Hillary. The last place you want to be standing on election day in November, 2016, is between a gray-haired person and a polling place. So the GOP can cross off Florida even if Rubio OR Bush is the Republican nominee--yes, the Republicans' chances to win the White House are that bad in 2016.

Remember, when most people over the age of 45 think of Hillary, they actually think of "Bill and Hillary." That's actually a very good thing for Hillary, which I am not sure her campaign advisers understand at this point. Nobody is without sin as they say, and even Barbara Bush is now a big fan of Bill Clinton. Most older Americans remember the Clinton administration (1993-2000), as the "good years"-- prosperous, peaceful--heck we even had a federal budget surplus in some of those years thanks to the Republicans who controlled both houses of Congress, yet Bill was also able to triangulate and "get things done."

Of course, the media will, at least publicly, maintain the race (at whatever point) is "close" and will make mountains out of molehills at every chance they get in order to try to create some ratings for their dinosaur media properties. If you're a political junkie, have a good time. As for the rest of us, life goes on.

The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects