When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Michael Lewis: What If Markets Made Themselves Fair? (video)

Michael Lewis: What If Markets Made Themselves Fair? -

March 25 -- “Flash Boys” Author and Bloomberg View Columnist Michael Lewis discusses high frequency trading a year after the release of his book. He spoke March 25th on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” His opinions are his own.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Traders Are in an Arms Race for Speed (video)

Traders Are in an Arms Race for Speed -

Themis Trading Partner Joe Saluzzi discusses high-frequency trading and the markets. He speaks on Bloomberg's “In The Loop.”

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Goodbye to War Loan: 1917 to 2015 (video)

Goodbye to War Loan: 1917 to 2015 - To commemorate this most interesting of gilts we have made a film about War Loan – one that tells the economic history of the UK through wars, default, the re-joining and leaving of the gold standard, the inflationary 1970s, the loss of the UK’s AAA credit rating, and finally the deflation that has followed the Great Financial Crisis.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Birch Cent Penny That Could Fetch $2 Million at Auction Today (video)

This Penny Could Fetch $2 Million at Auction -

A U.S. penny forged in 1792 is up for auction at Stack's Bowers in Baltimore, with an estimated value of $2 million. If the March 26 auction meets expectations, the coin will have realized a 200 million percent increase in value in 223 years. Bloomberg's James Tarmy has more on "Taking Stock."

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Investing? Beware Consultants, They Will Cost You

The 2015 Commonfund prize has just been granted to an academic paper that concludes:
  • we find no evidence that [consultants']... recommendations add value, suggesting that the search for winners, encouraged and guided by investment consultants, is fruitless
  • the portfolio of all products recommended by investment consultants delivered average returns net of management fees of 6.31% per year (7.13% before fees). These returns are, on average 1.12% lower than the returns obtained by other products available to plan sponsors, which are not recommended by consultants.
  • Consultants face a conflict of interest, as arguably they have a vested interest in complexity. Proposing an active US equity strategy, which involves more due diligence, complexity, monitoring, switching and therefore more consultancy work, drives up consulting revenues in comparison to simple cheap solutions.
  • investment consultants themselves are shy of disclosing the sort of information which would allow plan sponsors, or any outsider, to measure their own performance.
Moral of the story: when making any investment based on the recommendation of another, always look at the vested interest of the person(s) making the recommendation--usually the conflict of interest is obvious, but in other cases, you have to dig deeper.

Hat Tip: Investing: Nobody knows anything | The Economist

Sunday, March 22, 2015

China, Reality Check, Has the Hard Landing Already Started? (video)

China Reality Check: Has the Hard Landing in China Already Started? -

Published on Feb 20, 2015: China’s economic growth rate fell to 7.4% in 2014, and many believe the official figure is actually more generous than the reality. Most forecasts expect growth to come in well under 7.0% in 2015. What are we to make of these trends? Are we at the beginning of a hard landing where the long history of structural inefficiencies are finally and inescapably being revealed and the possibilities of a financial crisis more ever looming? Or are we in a gradual shift toward a “new normal” of healthier and still relatively robust growth as a result of foresighted policy adjustments? Or is something else going on altogether? Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, is a veteran analyst of the China’s economy and economic policy process. She travels widely in China in order to compare official data with actual behavior and performance. Bob Davis of the Wall Street Journal is a leading expert on macroeconomic policy and recently completed an extended posting in Beijing, where he wrote regularly about China’s economy.

Anne Stevenson-Yang
Co-founder and Research Director, J Capital Research

with Commentary from:
Bob Davis
Washington Correspondent, Wall Street Journal

Scott Kennedy
Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, and Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS

Moderated by:
Christopher K. Johnson
Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Friday, March 20, 2015

The Incredible Turnaround of the US Dollar Explained (video)

The Incredible Turnaround of the U.S. Dollar Explained -

The U.S. dollar has been surging recently. Bloomberg Markets Managing Editor Joe Weisenthal explains why the dollar is the strongest it's been in 12 years.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Nouriel Roubini Does Not See Greece Leaving the Euro (video)

Nouriel Roubini Does Not See Greece Leaving the Euro -

In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy.

Monday, March 16, 2015

I'm For Billary! Slogans That Hillary Clinton Will Never Use (video)

Slogans That Hillary Clinton Will Never Use -

"With All Due Respect" test-drives some potential bumper-sticker slogans for Hillary Clinton's impending campaign

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Who Buys $30 million Apartments in New York City? (video)

Luxury Views: Who’s Buying Up $30 Million Dollar Apartments in New York City? -

Dune Real Estate Partners CEO Daniel Neidich discusses the New York City luxury real estate market. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” February 24th

Friday, March 13, 2015

ECB President Mario Draghi News Conference in Two Minutes (video)

ECB President Mario Draghi's News Conference in Two Minutes -

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks about its bond purchase plans and the effectiveness of policy on March 5.Watch all the key moments from Draghi's news conference in Nicosia in two minutes. (Excerpts.)

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Why Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop the Drilling (video)

Why Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop the Drilling -

If oil rigs lead to new wells, fewer rigs should lead to less oil, right? Not necessarily. Bloomberg's Tom Randall explains. (Video by: Sadie Bass, Steven Jackson.)

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Top Five Frontier Markets to Invest In (video)

The Top Five Frontier Markets to Invest In -

Frontier markets are the wild west of the investing world. They can be dangerous, corrupt and often poverty-stricken but they can also be hugely lucrative. Bloomberg’s Gavin Serkin travelled with some of the world’s best-performing fund managers to find out which markets are worth the trouble. He reveals his findings in his book "Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow." March 5, 2015

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Why There Are No Winners in the Global Currency War (video)

Why There Are No Winners in the Global Currency War -

In a world where growth is scarce and prospects aren't improving, an unspoken currency war has broken out. The short term pay-off might be a boost in exports, but, according to Bloomberg View's Mark Gilbert, there can be no real winners in the end.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Will a $150 Million Condo Sell in New York City? (video)

Don Peebles, chairman and chief executive officer at Peebles Corporation, discusses the increased pricing and demand for luxury real estate in New York City. He speaks on “Market Makers.” (Feb 19, 2015)

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Is Cheap Oil a Complete Plus for the Economy?

Rudin Management CEO and Vice Chairman William Rudin and Citi Research North America Economics Head William Lee discuss the impact of low oil prices on the economy and the oil industry. They speak on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Buffett's Bet, S&P 500 Index Fund vs Hedge Funds

Warren Buffett bet Seides and his partners in 2007 ($1 million initially, to go to charity) that an S&P 500 index fund would do better for investors than a hand-picked assortment of hedge funds over the ensuing ten years. Through Dec. 31, the index fund had gained 7.2% a year, far outpacing the 2.6% return of the hedge funds as a group. Buffett made the simple - and empirically airtight - point that the heavy fees collected by hedge funds over time will consume more than 100% of the extra return a fund manager is able to deliver. As it turned out, fees did cost some 2.6% annualized from the hedge funds’ results - but this only deepened the underperformance cause by other means. (source infra)

Michael Santoli's Tumblr — Cry me a river that leads to Omaha  The Fed and other central banks responded to the 2008 financial calamity by dropping rates to zero and keeping them there, driving stocks higher and depriving hedge funds of any income on cash held. The U.S. stock market vastly outran foreign equities, penalizing hedge funds’ global posture. Structural changes in the arena of borrowing and shorting stocks picked hedgies’ pockets as they tried to gain downside market exposure. So, the sharpest, best-connected, most highly compensated tactical predators in the markets (hedge funds) were undercut by central bankers who preferred the world economy didn’t fail and technological progress in trading mechanics - and over seven years they failed as a group to anticipate, embrace or maneuver around these shifts. (read more at link above)

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Prisoner's Dilemma, Life on the Outside (video)

Feb. 19, 2015 -- There are an estimated 1,500 people in the U.S. serving a sentence of life without the possibility of parole for crimes committed while they were juveniles. It's called JLWOP and in 2012 the Supreme Court ruled the sentence was unconstitutional. But the court did not address what to do about the people already serving JWLOP sentences. George Toca was one of them. On Jan. 29, 2015, he was released after signing a plea agreement with the Orleans Parish District Attorney. Bloomberg spent a day with Toca as he experienced his new life on the outside. (Video by Jennafer Savino, David Yim)

The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects