When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Sunday, May 31, 2015

O’Malley Ain't No Obama

Martin O’Malley has "been in governance far longer, has accomplished more, is arguably just as liberal as [Elizabeth Warren]... and unlike Warren, he’s actually running for president. Why do some progressives tend to dismiss him as a mere technocrat who doesn’t inspire?" -- Michael Hirsh - POLITICO
Let me make this simple--it's over. The 2016 race, for President. Barring something unforeseen--an indictment, a disabling health issue, etc.--Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. We all know what happened in 2008--a young, charismatic Senator from the State of Illinois knocked the wheels off the Clinton juggernaut (disclosure: I was an Obama supporter)--but it won't happen this time. O'Malley ain't no Obama. Oh sure, there are going to be some rough patches along the way. Hillary and Bill don't expect to just waltz back into the White House, they've been around the political game long enough to know better. But sometime after November, 2016, I fully expect to see Hill and Bill packing up for the move back to Washington.

The Republicans don't have anyone with the "right stuff," except perhaps Rand Paul, but the best he will be able to do is lay the groundwork for a 2020 or 2024 run for the White House. In the end, the Democrats will all coalesce around their sure winner. The world is a mess. Even the U.S. is stumbling--economically, socially, globally, politically--and Washington, D.C., is a self-serving cesspool of money and ambition. But the Clintons have already taken money from everybody, so there is no issue, foreign or domestic, where both sides haven't already attempted to "grease the wheels." In addition, Hillary will probably be playing for the history books as the first woman President.

If nothing else, the state of the nation and the world (see above), will ensure a Clinton victory in 2016. Fear is a great motivator, and people are fearful--"Dude, what happened to my country?"--the old people will come out in droves to vote for Hillary. The last place you want to be standing on election day in November, 2016, is between a gray-haired person and a polling place. So the GOP can cross off Florida even if Rubio OR Bush is the Republican nominee--yes, the Republicans' chances to win the White House are that bad in 2016.

Remember, when most people over the age of 45 think of Hillary, they actually think of "Bill and Hillary." That's actually a very good thing for Hillary, which I am not sure her campaign advisers understand at this point. Nobody is without sin as they say, and even Barbara Bush is now a big fan of Bill Clinton. Most older Americans remember the Clinton administration (1993-2000), as the "good years"-- prosperous, peaceful--heck we even had a federal budget surplus in some of those years thanks to the Republicans who controlled both houses of Congress, yet Bill was also able to triangulate and "get things done."

Of course, the media will, at least publicly, maintain the race (at whatever point) is "close" and will make mountains out of molehills at every chance they get in order to try to create some ratings for their dinosaur media properties. If you're a political junkie, have a good time. As for the rest of us, life goes on.

Monday, May 25, 2015

2016 And Why Jeb Bush Should Forget About Being President

Most people (even  some members of the Bush family) agree that Jeb Bush would have been a better President than his brother. But that doesn't mean Jeb will be, or should be, the next President. Time moves on. Opportunities lost are often, if not always, lost forever. That's the way it is in life, whether you are an entrepreneur in Silicon Valley or a politico Presidential wannabe.

We are hardly into the 2016 Presidential election cycle, and we are already witnessing the sad spectacle of Jeb trying to defend his brother's administration's disastrous foreign foray otherwise known as the Iraq War and other unwise policies--e.g., the Patriot Act.

Florida already has one candidate in the 2016 race--Marco Rubio, and some would say that even that is "one too many." The US appears to be in a "leadership vacuum." The Republicans don't have anyone, save for possibly Rand Paul, with real Presidential leadership potential and a chance to win in 2016. The Democrats seem to be stuck in Clintonialism and gender politics--"Hillary should be elected President because she is a woman and would have been elected in 2008 but for Barack Obama!" or "we need a woman President--the first in history!" However, despite the negatives and the baggage, Hillary will probably be the "safe choice" and elected in 2016. The celebration will seem subdued in comparison to the jubilation accompanying Barack Obama in 2008, but the nation will move on.

In the meantime, Jeb, for the sake of the nation, his party, his family, and his own personal integrity, should gracefully exit the race.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

The US Student Loan Program Disaster, Another Bubble of Government Ineptitude

Who thought it was a "good idea" to put young people in six figure, non-dischargable debt, often for worthless for-profit "college educations"?

Of course the beneficiaries have been the for-profit and non-profit colleges and universities whose own costs, including administrative salaries and staff size, have exploded due to the student loan program a/k/a government pork.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Larry Summers Concerned About US Economy, Secular Stagnation (video)

Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up -

Secular Stagnation: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers talks about economic growth and financial markets in the U.S. and China, and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Summers speaks with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on the sidelines of the SALT Conference in Las Vegas on Bloomberg's Television's "Market Makers," on May 7th.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Carl Icahn Interviewed on Wall Street Week this Sunday

Carl Icahn, activist shareholder and investor, is interviewed on Wall Street Week this Sunday, May 3rd--rumor has it this is a show worth catching online or on TV (see below).

About | Wall Street Week: "A revival of the iconic program originally hosted by Louis Rukeyser, Wall Street Week is focused on educating and empowering long-term investors.  With unrivalled access to the biggest names and critical insights on the biggest stories, Wall Street Week is the show that sets the agenda for the week ahead. Produced by SkyBridge Media LLC., an affiliate of SkyBridge Capital."

Streamed nationally on Wallstreetweek.com every Sunday at 11am ET (US).

Airing Sunday mornings on Fox broadcast stations in key markets: 
NEW YORK WNYW – FOX 5 Sundays @ 11am
SAN FRANCISCO KICU – TV 36 Sundays @ 11am
CHICAGO WFLD – FOX 32 Sundays @ 10am
WASHINGTON DC WTTG – Fox 5 Sundays @ 11am

The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects