You think the January jobs report is good news? You better think again--they're "fudging" the numbers in Washington--no surprise since this is an election year. My source? How about Floyd Norris in the New York Times--
Wow. But Is the Number Real? - NYTimes.com: "How many jobs did the American economy add in January?
The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.
The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.
The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.
A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller."
In other words, the economy lost jobs last month. But the Obama administration creates a "positive report" by using unreliable "seasonal adjustment factors." Well, at least Floyd Norris in the New York Times isn't fooled. How about you?
Tweet Follow @johnmpoole
The Big Picture
Financial Crisis - The Telegraph
JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website
Craig Newmark - craigconnects
- ► 2015 (131)
- ► 2014 (368)
- ► 2013 (380)
- How to Remove Your Google and YouTube Search Histo...
- Romney Rolls - "Super Tuesday" Next Week
- To Die like a Doctor: a Graceful Death
- GOP: a Cup of Crazy
- Ed Koch: 'Santorum is nuts'
- Federal money driving up the cost of college for s...
- The Greek Sustainability Report and Reaction & Ana...
- Eurozone: dead end zone?
- Ann Coulter takes Republicans to the woodshed
- Romney's right: Spending cuts, without pro-growth ...
- For Republicans, it's "self-destruct" time
- Greece: a return to the drachma?
- Germany's plan for Greece to leave the euro
- Why even corporate loopholes have to go
- 2012: The election is over - Obama won!
- Vote for Santorum and elect Obama!
- Greek Drama
- Greece: the euro has always been a flawed currency
- Living in an Age of Digital Espionage
- Greece faces death by a thousand cuts
- Privacy: Something Lost, Nothing Gained?
- Greek lawmakers approve austerity bill as Athens b...
- Iowa’s joke on all of us
- Obama's biggest vulnerability is not Obamacare
- Greek Default is not End of the World
- Obama’s greatest vulnerability as a leader
- Romney and Tax Policy: hardly bold enough
- Romney needs to get serious and credible
- Punk Economics: Lesson 1 [video]
- "That’s what people elected you to do"
- Caveat Romney: Obama Campaign on Lookout
- Romney Country
- Nevada: different state, same issues, same winner
- More on the Obama "Fudge" Jobs Report
- The "Obama Fudge Jobs Report"
- January jobs report--"Washington Fudge"
- Why the Early U.S. Didn't Go the Way of the Eurozone
- Eurozone: Reality Check
- Florida picks a winner: Mitt Romney
- ▼ February (39)