The Folly of the High and Mighty has now been revealed in the release of FOMC minutes of 2006 after a standard five-year delay:
Friday, January 13 - The Scan Article - American Banker: "Clueless: For all their power, pedigrees and Wall Street connections, senior Federal Reserve officials were as out to lunch about the state of the economy and housing market in 2006 as a roomful of polyester-clad Miami Beach condo flippers. That's the takeaway from Thursday's release, five years after the fact, of meeting transcripts from the Federal Open Market Committee. . . . "
New York Times:
. . . The transcripts of the 2006 meetings, released after a standard five-year delay, clearly show some of the nation’s pre-eminent economic minds did not fully understand the basic mechanics of the economy that they were charged with shepherding. The problem was not a lack of information; it was a lack of comprehension, born in part of their deep confidence in economic forecasting models that turned out to be broken. . . .
Doesn't give one much confidence that any of the so-called experts have any real understanding of the economy--or as the American Banker said: "and John C. Bogle, Vanguard Group's founder. . . for one, would give them an earful about what a fool's mission they're on trying to out-guess the economy and markets and how the truly enlightened focus instead on preparing to ride out their inevitably unknowable gyrations."
Read more here: American Banker, New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal
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