When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Friday, March 15, 2013

Orwellian Washington Speak - the "Good" Job Numbers

For a long time I have warned that the headline unemployment rate is not trustworthy but a distortion. Yes I know the Obama administration and its mainstream media shills are more than happy to keep peddling this ignorance, but if you want the true picture, start drilling down--here's a start:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Jobs +236,000, Unemployment Rate 7.7%, Part-Time Employment +446,000: "The official unemployment rate is 7.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 14.3%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. . . . One can look at the data two ways.
  1. The economy is getting better and more jobs are available
  2. People are working more jobs because their hours were cut and they need a second job
Evidence suggests more of the latter than the former. . . . The reported 236,000 surge in the establishment survey is not real. It will be revised away. This is why: In the household survey one is either working or not, thus multiple jobs do not distort the reported unemployment rate (although there are many other distortions such as the participation rate and declining labor force). The establishment survey, however, is distorted by people working multiple jobs. A surge in multiple-job workers would artificially hike the baseline number. I expect revisions later, probably huge downward revisions." Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/spoiling-great-employment-news.html#jHhhwXKfyLffSmSY.99


The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects