Predictions regarding technology for 2012 (in no particular order):
1. RIM (BlackBerry): continuing decline in market share as new (BlackBerry 10) models have now been delayed to late 2012--in the meantime Apple and Android will continue to iterate, dominate, and leave RIM in the dust. Meanwhile Microsoft/Nokia launch their own offensive with new Windows Phone models. If I were in Waterloo, I would be shopping what's left of RIM to potential bidders--Amazon?
2. Facebook has reached a plateau in U.S. growth, will launch their IPO (finally) and will face the challenges of being a mature company in a constantly changing landscape. Google+ and Twitter will continue to grow and provide alternatives for those unwilling to succumb to social media according to Zuckerberg.
3. Yahoo--too bad for its stockholders that Microsoft's offer wasn't accepted in 2008 ($44.6 billion/ $31 a share)--now it's too late--another company destroyed by corporate egos (are you listening RIM?). Maybe Yahoo (which has a pretty nice email platform) can find a buyer (Amazon? Facebook?) who can take what's left after shedding its asian "assets."
4. Microsoft--can it reinvent itself? So far, Microsoft, at best, has had mixed results in its attempts to keep up with Google and Apple. Microsoft should own home the TV market with the Xbox--watch Apple and Google take it away in 2012.
5. Amazon, Apple, Google--these are the ones to watch in 2012 as they continue to iterate and launch new products--e.g., watch all three go head-to-head in tablets in 2012.
6. Finally, keep an eye on a new disruptor--Republic Wireless--the business concept makes a lot of sense and will give AT&T, Verizon et al a lot of potential low-end competition.
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes
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