When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Barack Obama's re-election bid is already in deep trouble

I don't read the Mail  (when it comes to U.K. newspapers, I generally recommend the Telegraph) but Toby Harnden has written the best analysis of the Presidential race at this point, which I suggest is "must" reading for any follower of U.S. politics--excerpt below:

Barack Obama's re-election bid is already in deep trouble - Mail Online - Toby Harnden's blog: ". . . . If you viewed all this solely through the prism of media coverage and listened just to Washington pundits, you'd conclude that Obama has about an 80 percent chances of victory. In reality, his chances are much closer to 50:50, perhaps even with Romney holding an advantage (though many things can and will happen in six months). This cognitive dissonance is partly because of a liberal tilt but also because most reporters and talking heads live in bubbles of comfortable affluence insulated from the economic pain most Americans are facing. Even without factoring in the likely negative political impact of, say, Obamacare being struck down by the Supreme Court in June, Obama's re-election bid is already in deep trouble. Only a fool would underestimate Obama's campaign machine, his ability to raise money and the fact that he remains personally likeable to a majority of Americans despite the state of the country. Anyone who argues at this stage that Obama is doomed to defeat is deluding themselves. But the reality of this campaign is that it is likely to be brutal, very close - and could well result in Mitt Romney becoming the 45th President of the United States next January 20th." (bold added)

Obviously, Harnden's analysis affirms my analysis earlier this week. If I were a Democrat politico, I would be preparing for a Romney victory and the GOP holding the House--can the Democrats hold onto the Senate?


The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects