When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

2012 Presidential Election Projection

You can read the Associated Press's analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election, state by state electoral vote projection, here. I've found the best method is to start with the 2008 results and build in the scenario that fits the Obama-Romney race. My take shown here-- 2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map --results in Romney victory (271 electoral votes*) over Obama (267 electoral votes**). Very close race but a change in a few states could substantially increase Romney's winning margin--Obama's probably most vulnerable in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa.  

Well that's my take, what's yours?


2012 Presidential Election Projection (state listing):

*States Romney Wins (271):
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (split with 1 electoral college vote for Obama), Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

**States Obama Wins (267):
California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.

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