The Only Way Forward For Europe

Time to look at the Euro Zone again (and I'm afraid this isn't optimistic):

There's Only One Way Forward For Europe, And This Isn’t It - Business Insider: "The only way forward for the EU and the Eurozone is to let the weaker members (think PIIGS) leave, and to let them do that with grace, respect and dignity. Anything else is not just doomed to fail, it's doomed to incite violence. Europe has a long history, and it doesn't take much to evoke lots of that, any and all of that. . . . The EU must, make that capital MUST, not just allow, but facilitate for its weaker members to leave the eurozone. If it doesn't do that, it calls upon itself the wrath of the gods (Europe has lots of those)."

But here's the problem (and it is a killer problem):

"As per Draghi and Merkel and Monti et al., they have no plans for that kind of facilitating. Not because they like the Greeks so much, but because their banks would need to - at least partially - come clean; derivatives, don't you know. And those banks are far worse off and much more broke than anyone has been allowed to know. Unless a sufficiently large number of us wake up in time, as in right now, people will be shot to death in the streets of Athens and Barcelona just so the banks can continue to hide their losses. Is that the kind of world you want to live in? . . ."  Read more: http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/theres-only-one-way-forward-for-europe-and-this-isnt-it.html#ixzz27oyESgUs

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It's all Greek to me! (Sunday Election Results)

Greece--all is  not what it seems:

Greek Election Results - Business Insider: " . . . at first it all seemed good... but then around 9:00 PM in Athens, word came that the leader of PASOK, Venizelos, was threatening to withhold support for a new government unless SYRIZA also joined as part of a broad coalition. . . The meme in Athens is that SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras didn't even want to win, and always wanted to come back and run again in 4 to 8 months after the establishment parties lost standing. So suddenly what looked like a solid result had gone sour. But Athens insiders figured right away that Venizelos HAD to be bluffing . . . And that now seems to be the case. According to reports, Venizelos is signaling an agreement to join the government, but it's not clear how he will. . . . The mood here now is fatigue. Everyone expects elections soon, and nothing at all has really changed. Markets may be temporarily relieved that SYRIZA did not win, but this is far from a powerful market positive. It just averts what might have been a disaster. . . . "

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Europeans Dig Themselves Deeper

The Greeks vote today, and yet nobody in Europe wants to face the truth and do the right thing:

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Heart of the Matter - June 11, 2012: " . . . what is really happening is that a continent that is already excessively in debt is promising funds so that Spain can increase its government debt, and then needlessly protect the bondholders of Spanish banks, who should be subject to orderly restructuring instead. . . . The only way Spain could make a more explicit gift to bank bondholders would be to include wrapping paper and a bow. If it seems as if the global economy has learned nothing, it is because evidently the global economy has learned nothing. The right thing to do, again, is to take receivership of insolvent banks and wipe out the stock and subordinated debt, using the borrowed funds to protect depositors in the event that the losses run deep enough to eat through the intervening layers of liabilities (which is doubtful) . . . "

At some point, something's got to give--until then, caveat emptor.

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An Exit Strategy for Greece et al

Everyone in the Eurozone is wringing their hands about Greece and its possible exit from the euro (Eurozone). Here's an exit plan to which one could say, "the devil is in the details," but this looks like an "elegant" strategy--

Mosler/Pilkington: A Credible Eurozone Exit Plan – Smart Taxes Network: "So, we contend that the periphery governments should have a credible exit strategy on hand and it is to this that we now turn. Such a strategy would not be very hard to implement and would consist of two key principles: 1. Upon announcing that the country is leaving the Eurozone, the government of that country would announce that it would be making payments – to government employees etc. – exclusively in the new currency. Thus the government would stop using the euro as a means of payment. 2. The government would also announce that it would only accept payments of tax in this new currency. This would ensure that the currency was valuable and, at least for a while, in very short supply. And that is pretty much it. The government spends to provision itself and thereby injects the new currency into the economy while their new taxation policy ensures that it is sought after by economic agents and, thus, valuable. Government spending is thus the spigot through which the government injects the new currency into the economy and taxation is the drain that ensures citizens seek out the new currency."

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Spanish banks now "mainlining" ECB cash

Spain is beyond "life support"--its banks are now "mainlining" ECB cash to stay alive--

Turmoil in global markets as Spanish bank borrowing from ECB doubles - Telegraph: "The Bank of Spain disclosed the country's biggest institutions borrowed €316.3bn (£260.9bn) from the ECB in March, almost twice the €169.8bn in February. Traders dumped Spanish stocks and bought insurance against Madrid defaulting, convinced the data showed that the banks are now almost shut out of international credit markets. Spain's Ibex stock market plunged 3.6pc, with bank stocks leading the fall. The nation's benchmark 10-year bond yields soared past 6pc, heading deep into the danger zone that experts say is not sustainable without external support. Meanwhile, the cost of credit default swaps hit a record high of 500 basis points, meaning it costs £500,000 a year to insure £10m of Spanish debt over five years. This compares with around £70,000 for German debt. The spectre of another eurozone bail-out saga - only this time far bigger than Greece - rattled stock markets across Europe. In Italy, where protesters against austerity measures gathered in Rome, the MIB closed down 3.4pc. The French CAC fell 2.5pc; Germany's DAX dropped 2.4pc; and in London the FTSE 100 slid 1pc."

First Greece, now Spain, coming soon Portugal and Italy. The "turmoil" continues-- the Eurocrisis is far from over--oh, and the French are about to throw out Sarkozy. Stay tuned.

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The Eurozone Disease

The biggest failure of the Obama Presidency? Without a doubt his failure to address the fiscal crisis facing the United States. Instead of providing leadership after the report and recommendations of his own appointed Presidential Commission (Simpson-Bowles)--he did nothing. Failure to lead, failure to act, that is his undeniable legacy on this issue. So where does this leave us? Completely vulnerable to "catching" the "Eurozone disease"--

Agenda | Irwin Stelzer: Euro-Zone Shark Still Has Its Appetite - WSJ.com: "Bankrupt Greece; junk-rated Portugal pleading with Angola for inbound investment; jobless Spain, facing some interest rates that have doubled in the past month; and recovering Ireland have already fallen to the bond vigilantes. Growth-free Italy is fighting a rearguard action, facing unsustainable interest rates despite the stellar reputation of its newly appointed technocrat prime minister, Mario Monti; Belgian debt, now equal to its GDP, has been downgraded, in part because of the inability of this seat of the EU to form a new government. France, consumer confidence dropping, is likely next. . . . The failure of the supercommittee to find some trivial deficit reductions means America might also slip into the ungovernable category. And the Federal Reserve Board is imposing new stress tests to determine whether leading banks can withstand a wave of sovereign- debt and bank defaults in Europe. Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Charles Krauthammer is not alone in arguing that the euro-zone disease, unless cured, might well turn slow growth in the U.S. into recession, and scupper any chance President Barack Obama has of avoiding a forced return to Chicago in 2013. Which is why Mr. Obama will do more than present German Chancellor Angela Merkel with the Presidential Medal of Freedom when she arrives in Washington Monday evening. He and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner hope to persuade her to stem the rot. Whether she is prepared to take advice from the team that has driven American deficits and debt to such levels that their nation's debt has been downgraded while Germany's remains triple-A is uncertain. . . . "

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Reality Check: Eurocrisis Is Far From Over

Don't listen to the pundits and salesmen, the eurocrisis is far from over--here is Germany's Der Spiegel's take just last week:

Not Out of The Woods Yet: Despite Progress, Euro Crisis Is Far From Over - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International: " . . . So has Greece been rescued and financial markets been tamed? Is the euro crisis a thing of the past? Unfortunately not. With their successes in the last few days, euro-zone politicians have done little more than bought themselves time. They must use this window to brace themselves for the next wave of the euro crisis which is about to crash down on Europe. It's already clear that the Greek economy can't survive with a government debt to GDP ratio that will -- at best -- still be at 117 percent in 2020, especially given the record pace at which the country's GDP is contracting. There is still no coherent strategy for making Greece competitive again inside the euro zone, or for raising the capital for the huge investments needed -- let alone for the wholesale revamp of the country's entire public administration. And so Greece is likely to report the next set of disappointing budget figures in a few months, and the wrangling over a new debt cut and a new rescue package will start shortly afterwards. Maybe the next wave of the crisis will hit us even sooner: Greece is scheduled to hold an election on April 22 which is expected to produce a left-wing majority deeply opposed to the strict austerity program imposed by Brussels. . . .  Portugal, Spain and Italy, the three other problem countries in the south of the euro zone, must perform the magic trick of stimulating growth while reducing their budget deficits. That can only succeed with a lot of pragmatism -- austerity without growth is as pointless as growth without austerity. . . ."

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The Greek Sustainability Report and Reaction & Analysis

Greek Sustainability Report

Greek debt sustainability analysis Report in full above--reaction and analysis of the Report below:

UPDATE 2-Greek debt could easily derail again - EU/IMF report | Reuters: "Greece's second bailout programme could easily go off the rails and send the nation's debt rocketing back to today's unmanageable levels, a confidential study by its international lenders shows. The 9-page debt sustainability analysis, on which euro zone finance ministers based their decision on Tuesday to approve a 130-billion-euro rescue programme, is anything but a vote of confidence in Athens' ability to put its public finances back on a sound footing. Indeed the report, dated Feb. 15 and first obtained by Reuters on Monday, describes in the disembodied prose of economic bureaucrats how uncertain Greece's recovery will remain for many years, and how Athens will likely need international aid for an indefinite period. Experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund highlighted the risks and questioned the assumption that Greece will be able to return to capital markets in the coming years."

Eurozone finance ministers agree second bailout for Greece; Troika sustainability report says outlook is grim: "The FT says the troika report explains why European countries were so opposed to the new financing programme for Greece. In an article headlined "Greek debt nightmare laid bare", it said: A German-led group of creditor countries – including the Netherlands and Finland – has expressed extreme reluctance to go through with the deal since they received the report." 

Greek accounting cannot hide the urgency for growth - FT.com: "“The troika have had to do some arithmetic gymnastics in order to make the numbers add up but their optimistic assumptions are unlikely to hold,” said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, an economic consultancy that has advised European officials. . . . the confidential debt sustainability report points out that even if Greece’s budget reaches a surplus of 2.5 per cent every year, not including debt interest payments, getting “stuck” at that level could prove disastrous: “Debt would be on an ever-increasing trajectory,” the report found. The urgency for growth comes even though European Union officials acknowledged on Tuesday that they would seek significant further austerity measures from Athens throughout the bail-out programme."

Eurozone's shocking prescription for Greece – Telegraph Blogs: "A "strictly confidential" 10-page debt sustainability report commissioned for yesterday's meeting of eurozone ministers concludes that the austerity measures being foisted on Greece as a quid pro quo for a second, €130bn bailout, are quite likely to prove self-defeating, in that the austerity, by further weakening the economy, may well cause the debt to GDP ratio to rise further. Furthermore, the debt "haircut" being required of private investors may prevent Greece from ever returning to private markets for borrowing, making the country indefinitely reliant on official support. After the bailouts, so much of Greek's debt will be held by official repositories, all of who will have preferential treatment as creditors, that no private sector investor would go anywhere near it, knowing he'd be last in the queue of creditors"

The Future Is Not What It Used To Be - NYTimes.com:
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be by Paul Krugman
I’ve been comparing the original IMF projections for Greece with the secret recent sustainability analysis that everyone has. . . . Of course, everyone thinks the latest is wildly overoptimistic."

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Eurozone: dead end zone?

Despite the second "bailout deal" for Greece, things still look dismal for the Eurozone: 

German showdown with IMF looms as Bundestag blocks rescue funds - Telegraph: "Europe can’t find a solution because there isn’t one."

So, what would your plan for Greece be? — Crooked Timber: "I don’t have a solution myself – the more I end up discussing this with people, the more I am reminded of the London Business School proverb taught on some of the gnarlier case studies, which is “Not All Business Problems Have Solutions”."

Euro Agonistes - NYTimes.com by Paul Krugman: "Euro exit would allow a quick devaluation, solving the competitiveness problem — but it would be hugely disruptive and would generate vast ill-will, so it’s hard to see any government taking that step until there really are no alternatives (which may soon be true for Greece, but not the others). So there’s a kind of trap. If you imagine yourself as the Prime Minister of such a country, what can you do? For the most part, I’m afraid, you plead with the troika to make the austerity demands less severe, you do what you can to accelerate improving competitiveness (which isn’t much), and you wait for things either to get gradually better via “internal devaluation” or to get worse and provide the economic and political environment in which euro exit becomes a real possibility. It’s a hell of a way to make economic policy, but I don’t see any magic bullets."

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Greece: a return to the drachma?

Better title for article below: "Only a return to the drachma can save Greece as unemployment soars"--

Can a return to the drachma save Greece as unemployment soars? - Telegraph: ". . . . Mr Papademos warns that default and EMU-exit would lead to "uncontrollable economic chaos". But is that not already the case? No Greek bank has been able to issue a letter of credit accepted anywhere in the world since November. Large Greek companies are having to relocate their headquarters to Bulgaria in order to conduct basic trade. The "drachma risk" has already killed investment. Greece is suffering the anticipated consequences of EMU exit without the benefits, so it might as well lance the boil, impose capital controls, and create a new banking system (as Iceland did). Such catharsis might start to unlock €60bn of cash savings in gold, dollars, German euro notes (letter `X’, Greece `Y’), and such-like, sitting in the proverbial mattress. Foreign investors might start to nibble again, once the Greek exchange rate reflects reality at around seven Chinese yuan. . . . "

And yet, Greek leaders "fiddle" with a "sentimentality" for the euro (flawed currency that it is) while Greece continues to spiral down. And the French and Germans?

The European project is splitting apart at the very core - Telegraph: " . . . . On one hand, the defenders of the orthodoxy, led by the Commission and supported by France (which is exposed to a Greek default more than any other country), is battling to hold the line with another massive bail-out. . . On the other hand, it becomes increasingly clear that Germany, supported by Holland and Finland, has had enough. They see no point in throwing colossal sums of money into what Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, calls “the bottomless pit” of Greek debt. It is they who have wanted to pile ever more impossible demands on Greece to hurry on a default. If other debtor countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain follow suit and leave the euro that they should never have been allowed to join – so be it. . . .   However the chips fall in coming days and months, the eurozone will disintegrate. The European dream has entered a nightmare stage from which there is no rational escape and the consequences will be horrendous, for Europe and the world."

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Germany's plan for Greece to leave the euro

Thankfully, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's Finance Minister, has taken the lead to try to solve the Greek problem and help them get a "fresh start:"

Germany drawing up plans for Greece to leave the euro - Telegraph: "The German finance ministry is actively pushing for Greece to declare itself bankrupt and to agree a "haircut" on the bulk of its debts held by banks, a move that would be classed as a default by financial markets. . . . the severe austerity measures being demanded have caused such fury in Greece, and the cuts required are so deep, that Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, does not believe that any government would be able to implement them." His pessimism has been tipped into despair with a secret European Commission, Central and IMF report that even if Greece made good on its promises, it would not be enough to reach the target of bringing total debt to 120 per cent of GDP by 2020. . . . the Greek government should officially declare itself bankrupt and begin negotiating an even bigger cut with its creditors. For Schäuble, it is more a question of when, not if. . . .  it has support from Austria and Finland - holding the prospect that a eurozone meeting tomorrow will fail to agree the next set of EU-IMF payments for Greece. . . . Rumours are already circulating in Wall Street that banks are preparing for a "credit event" - a technical term used by credit agencies to mean a default - in the days immediately following March 20, as Greece looks likely to be unable to meet its debts. . . . Mr Schäuble maintains that since Greece is already regarded by the financial world as bankrupt, a formal bankruptcy would have no negative consequences for other euro members."

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Greece faces death by a thousand cuts

More on Greece, and its unnecessary and now prolonged suffering:

Greece faces death by a thousand cuts unless it leaves the euro - Telegraph: "Repeated rounds of austerity are proving self defeating, which makes it virtually certain that Greece will eventually have to come back for more. What are Europe's paymasters to demand then? . . . What is more, experience in Argentina and other countries that have both devalued and defaulted suggest that the economic shock of exiting a fixed exchange rate is relatively short lived. Once competitiveness has been restored by devaluation and default, growth prospects improve dramatically. The short sharp shock of exit is very likely better than the death by a thousand cuts implied by continued membership. . . . Consider now what this grim choice of death by a thousand cuts involves. What Greece has in essence committed itself to is an internal devaluation lasting years, if not decades into the future. There is no discernible end to the austerity; year after year, it grinds remorselessly on. Even if everything goes according to plan, which seems deeply unlikely on the record so far, it takes until 2020 to reduce the national debt to 120pc of GDP, a level still far too high to be remotely sustainable. In addition to having to run big primary surpluses into the indefinite future, Greece also faces a massive hit to nominal wages and living standards . . . There is not a hope of Greece growing its way back to debt sustainability while still in the euro. As things stand, capital is leaving the country by whatever means available . . . ."

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Eurozone: Reality Check

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9055782/Debt-crisis-live.html
06.47 In The Independent today, several financial experts offer their views on the future of the euro, with worrying results:

Danny Blanchflower, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College: “The fundamental problem that has not been addressed is that there is no growth plan for Greece."

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics, New York University: “The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck. Not only Greece, other countries as well are insolvent. There’s a 50pc probability that over the next three to five years the eurozone will break up."

George Soros, currency trader: "We remain in the acute phase of the crisis; the prospect of a meltdown of the global financial system has not been removed. The trouble is that the cuts in government expenditures that Germany wants to impose on other countries will push Europe into a deflationary debt trap."

Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer 2007-2010: "I don’t think anyone can realistically say that the eurozone will survive with its present membership and the longer the inaction goes on the greater the chance that one or more countries will be forced out."

Jim O’Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "The reality is that too many countries joined the euro in the first place and ultimately without dramatic change they can’t probably survive."

Ed Balls, Shadow Chancellor: "Far from being over, I fear the eurozone crisis is this year entering a more chronic, drawn out but equally dangerous phase."

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All You Need to Know about the Eurosummit

A disastrous failure at the summit - FT.com: "fiscal austerity: long-term structural recessions in vulnerable countries. To put it bluntly, the single currency will come to stand for wage falls, debt deflation and prolonged economic slumps. Can this stand, however big the costs of a break-up? The eurozone has no credible plan to fix the flaws of the eurozone, apart from greater fiscal austerity: there is to be no fiscal, financial or political union; and there is to be no balanced mechanism for economic adjustment on both sides of the creditor-debtor divide. The decision is, instead, to try still harder with a stability and growth pact whose failures have been both predictable and persistent."--Martin Wolf in the Financial Times

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Germany: Going Down with the Ship

What's happening in Europe is becoming of epic proportions--and I'm sure will be studied by economists for years to come--

Germany told to act to save Europe - FT.com: ". . . the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development called on European leaders to provide “credible and large enough firepower” to halt the sell-off in the eurozone sovereign debt market, or risk a severe recession. The OECD’s comments came as the organisation slashed its half-yearly forecasts for growth in the world’s richest countries, warning that economic activity in Europe would grind to a near-halt. Yet their calls were met by a stubborn insistence in Berlin that only EU treaty change to forge a “stability union” in the eurozone would revive confidence in the markets.  Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, rejected calls for the European Central Bank to act as a “lender of last resort” in the eurozone . . . "

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Eurocontagion: caveat emptor!

The Apocalypse Trade - NYTimes.com: ". . . German bonds are now being priced as a risky asset — what the FT calls the “apocalypse trade“. The interest rate on bunds, at 2.21% as I write this, is still very low by historical standards. But it’s above the rate on UK bonds (2.17%) and way above the rate on US bonds (1.88%). The way to see this is that the market is in effect pricing in a real possibility of eurozone collapse. . . ." Paul Krugman in the New York Times

How safe are the euros in your pocket or bank account?

Debt crisis: as it happened November 24, 2011 - Telegraph: "The FTSE 100 loses £107 billion during nine straight days of losses, as a meeting between French, German and Italian leaders offers little progress on resolving eurozone debt crisis."


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Eurozone: the confidence fairy’s not coming

Brief Eurozone status update: “Even with unlimited political will, this would be a recipe for prolonged recession and stagnation in Europe. With political capital limited in practice — watch Spain’s new government quickly become just as unpopular as the old one! — it’s a recipe for catastrophe. No wonder eurocrats placed their faith in the confidence fairy. But she’s not coming. It would take a radical reversal of course to save this thing. And so far I see no willingness to face up to that necessity.” -- Paul Krugman in the New York Times

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Angela Merkel to Europe: "You vill obey!"

Europe - Debt Crisis Shows Angela Merkel Is the Boss - CNBC: "Groucho Marx once said that money frees you from doing things you dislike. “Since I dislike doing nearly everything, money is handy,” said the Marx Brother. Having spent billions of euros they didn’t have, governments across Europe are now finding out the hard way that without money they have to accept things that they would rather not be doing—namely, taking orders from Angela Merkel in Berlin . . ."

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The euro, it turns out, was not a good idea

These two excerpts say it all:

Roubini: Italy Is Doomed And Will Exit EMU Unless ECB, Germany Step In - Forbes: "The only way to stop the upcoming disaster, according to Roubini, is quantitative easing. The ECB would have to drop interest rates to zero, effectively helping to depreciate the currency, and begin massively buying up Italian and peripheral debt. The euro would fall to parity with the dollar, Roubini says, and Germany and other “core” countries would have to implement fiscal stimulus plans to compensate for the fall in aggregate demand caused by austerity in peripheral nations."

Krugman: The sad irony here is that the euro is, in reality, essentially an Italian creation. If you were part of the dialogue in the late 80s and early 90s, it became clear that the euro was best understood as a plot by Italian technocrats to get themselves German central bankers. This was not, it turns out, a good idea.   http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/original-original-sin/

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Now for the Italian Job

 
Italy debt crisis: what the experts said - Telegraph: 
"Italian bonds rise past 'unsustainable' 7pc barrier and there are fears the contagion is spreading to Spain and France, as the ECB reportedly buys Italy's debt and Germany is under pressure to act to save monetary union."

Angela Merkel, German Chancellor: Speaking at a conference in Berlin, Merkel said the situation in Europe had become "unpleasant".   Understatement of the year.

David Cameron, British Prime Minister: “If you don’t have credibility about your plans to deal with your debts and deal with your deficits . . . they won’t lend you any money.” No kidding!

Nick Clegg, Britain's Deputy Prime Minister:". . .Today I do not intend to provide further commentary on these specific events. For one thing, it would probably be out of date by the time I sat down.”  Better late than never?

Alistair Darling, former British Chancellor: “I despair of the way in which EU leaders are constantly behind events. I do not think enough people realise how serious this crisis is, and how hard it is going to hit us. This is far worse than the banking crisis of 2008 in its seriousness and, if it is not solved by Christmas, I think the whole of the euro will break up.”  Christmas?

Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs: "European officials are concerned about widening Italian bond yield spreads. We are following it very closely, but I would not want to ... state that any particular level is traumatic."  Denial is a river . . . in Europe.

Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at foreign exchange company, World First: “The markets continue to lurch from one problem to the next and we have now kicked the can as far down the road as is possible. Unfortunately there is very little more that can be done to stop this crisis. The only possible mechanism for the eurozone to haul itself out of this mess is to let the ECB print euros and print them like their life depends on it, because - and I do not mean to sound flippant - the euro’s life does depend on it.”  Unfortunately, the Germans will never allow it (printing euros).

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