When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Sunday, May 4, 2014

New Home Sales Plunge, Experts Consensus Wrong Again

Sales are 14.5 percent below the revised February rate of 449,000
Sales are 13.3 percent below the March 2013 estimate of 443,000
Supply is 6.0 months at the current sales rate
(source: infra and http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf )

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank: "Consensus is looking for 0.5% to 0.8% positive GDP from housing. Pity the opposite is happening ... and that on a day when 100% of economists in recent survey by Jim Bianco see US rates higher in six months! Yes, 100%." (source: infra)

Mike Mish Shedlock: "If sales decline was weather related, then why were sales up in the Northeast? I suggest the Fed managed to blow another housing bubble, especially in California and the West where sales are down the most. With rising rates, people are priced out of the market." Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-home-sales-plunge-145-its-not.html#ZQoWOVmzOPL1lHyk.99


The Big Picture

Financial Crisis - The Telegraph

JohnTheCrowd.com | The Sailing Website

Craig Newmark - craigconnects