When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Monday, April 29, 2013

Cyprus needs a divorce lawyer

Paul Krugman is right on this one--

Cyprus, Seriously - NYTimes.com: " . . . yes, Cyprus should leave the euro. Now. The reason is straightforward: staying in the euro means an incredibly severe depression, which will last for many years while Cyprus tries to build a new export sector. Leaving the euro, and letting the new currency fall sharply, would greatly accelerate that rebuilding. If you look at Cyprus’s trade profile, you see just how much damage the country is about to sustain. This is a highly open economy with just two major exports, banking services and tourism — and one of them just disappeared. This would lead to a severe slump on its own. On top of that, the troika is demanding major new austerity, even though the country supposedly has rough primary (non-interest) budget balance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20 percent fall in real GDP. . . ."

    

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